BIOS601 Resources: C&H Ch01 [prob. Models] and Ch02 [conditional Prob. Models]

Clayton and Hills Textbook

• Individual chapters     Chapters 01-21 (1 file)     Chapters 22-end (1 file)

Material used for Probability Topic in course epib607

• Probability, Random Variables, etc

Articles ...

• The meaning of odds. A Ladbrokes employee writes odds for the royal baby
  on a chalk board in front of the Lindo Wing.
  Article entitled 'Escape from royal baby media circus leads to London's betting shops'
  in the weeks leading up to the birth of the baby of William and Catherine.
   
• PERFORNANCE AND INTERPRETATION OF DIAGNOSTIC/SCREENING TESTS
  
  PRIMER on Certain Elements of Medical Decision Making
  Operating characteristics of diagnostic tests; diagnostic probabilities, etc... [McNeil et al, NEJM 1975]
  
  When doctors meet numbers [Berwick et al, 1981]
  
  Screening for HIV: Can we afford the FALSE POSITIVE RATE? [Meyer and Pauker, 1987]
  
  CMAJ series, 1981 and 1983   Sackett   MORE RECENT ... Grimes   Deeks   Altman-Bland   Steurer   Fanshawe
   
  How can a proposed airport security screening system correctly categorize 83% of 20 subjects?
  And how would it do if, the mix were not 8 'criminals' and 12 'innocents', but instead 8 and 12,000 --- or 8 and 120,000?
  
  Seeing through the face of deception   [Nature, a few months after 9/11]
   
  
  
• BBC News - Amanda Knox and bad maths in court
   
• When Judges Can't Do Math, Justice Suffers: Justice Flunks Math
   
• Math Error Number 4: Double Experiment: the test that wasn't done (Amanda Knox case)
   
• Entire `Math on Trial' book, from which chapter on Math Error Number 4 was extracted
   
• Interview with one of the authors of `Math on Trial'
   
• Update 2015.09.07
   
• Stephen Stigler: `The True Title of Bayes's Essay'
  Statistical Science 2013, Vol. 28, No. 3, 283-288.
   
• Problems with scientific research: HOW SCIENCE GOES WRONG
  Scientific research has changed the world. Now it needs to change itself
  The Economist, Oct 19th 2013
   
• Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science
  Open Science Collaboration
   
• Understanding sensitivity and specificity with the right side of the brain
  Tze-Wey Loong; BMJ Vol 327 27 Sept. 2003
   
• Abraham Wald's [WW II] work on aircraft survivability
  Mangel and Samaniego; JASA June 1984
  
  It includes A REPRINT OF (the 1943 work)
  "A METHOD OF ESTIMATING PLANE VULNERABILITY BASED ON DAMAGE OF SURVIVORS"
  BY ABRAHAM WALD -- de-classified in 1980.
   
• The Applications of Probability to Cryptography by Alan M. Turing (1941)
  
  This WW II work was de-classified in 2012, and the manuscript was re-typeset in LateX by Ian Taylor.
  The single large pdf file combines the LateX->pdf file,
  the scanned version of the original typed-and-handwritten ms. from 1941,
  and the 2012 journal article by S. Zabell "Commentary on Alan M. Turing:
  The Applications of Probability to Cryptography" Cryptologia, 36:191-214.
   
• A. M. Turing's Statistical Work in World War II
  I. J. Good
  Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXVII. Biometrika, Vol. 66, No. 2 (Aug., 1979), pp. 393-396
  
  As Zabell tells us, "But bound as he was by his pledge of secrecy,
  Good had to remain silent about what can only be
  described as one of the outstanding statistical
  success stories of the 20th century. And even after
  1974, when the successes of Bletchley Park became known,
  Good felt constrained not to reveal in detail just how
  central the Bayesian approach had been."
   
• Want 3 kids? Fertility experts say you need to start by this age
   
• Monty's dilemma with no formulas
   
• Latent Class Models and Diagnostic Tests
  
  
  • Estimating the Error Rates of Diagnostic Tests
    S. L. Hui and S. D. Walter. Biometrics, Vol. 36, No. 1 (Mar., 1980), pp. 167-171
    
    
  • ESTIMATION OF TEST ERROR RATES, DISEASE PREVALENCE AND RELATIVE RISK FROM MISCLASSIFIED DATA: A REVIEW
    S. D. Walter and L. M. Irwig. J Clin Epidemiol Vol. 41. No. 9, pp 923
    
    
  • Bayesian Estimation of Disease Prevalence and the Parameters of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard
    Lawrence Joseph, Theresa W. Gyorkos, and Louis Coupal. American Journal of Epidemiology. Vol. 141, No. 3. 263-272. 1995.
    
    
  • Effects of dependent errors in the assessment of diagnostic test performance.
    VICKI L. TORRANCE-RYNARD AND STEPHEN D. WALTER. Statistics in Medicine 1997 Oct 15;16(19):2157-75.
    
    
  • Diagnostic Test Accuracy in Childhood Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Samuel G. Schumacher, Maarten van Smeden*, Nandini Dendukuri, Lawrence Joseph, Mark P. Nicol, Madhukar Pai, and Heather J. Zar. American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access published October 13, 2016
    
    
• Joint dependence of risk of coronary heart disease on serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure: a discriminant function analysis
  JEROME CORNFIELD. Federation Proceedings July-August 1962, Supplement no. 11, pp 58-61. Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology, Washington, D.C.
  
  
• A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF THE RISK OF CORONARY HEART DISEASE IN FRAMINGHAM
  JEANNE TRUETT, JEROME CORNFIELD and WILLIAM KANNEL. J. Chron. Dis. 1967, Vol. 20, pp. 511-524.
  
  
• Estimation of the Probability of an Event as a Function of Several Independent Variables
  Strother H. Walker and David B. Duncan. Biometrika, Vol. 54, No. 1/2 (Jun., 1967), pp. 167-179
  
  
• Is luck real? A probability expert untangles the difference between fate and chance
  CBC Radio interview with author Jeffrey Rosenthal, author of Knock on Wood: Luck, Chance and the Meaning of Everything,