McGill University, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Course EPIB-626: RISKS AND HAZARDS (updated February 15, 2020) Links to other Courses(JH)   607   613   622    678   681   697   323   med2 Advancing Global Public Health [University of Michigan] The Thomas Francis Jr. Medal: Celebrating the 50th Anniversaryof the Polio Vaccine Announcement Article The Biggest Public Health Experiment Ever: The 1954 Field Trial of the Salk Poliomyelitis Vaccine Paul Meier, University of Chicago [ Chapter 2 in Tanur JM et al. (Editors) Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown. Holden-Day San Francisco 1972 ] From exam, December 2003 question 2 (pdf) From exam, December 2002 Q 1 --Hep B vaccination Taiwan (pdf)        Q 2--RCT of HPV type 16 vaccine(pdf) Material for possible exam questions and Answers to Queries 2002 Universal hepatitis B vaccination and the decreased mortality from fulminant hepatitis in infants in Taiwan A CONTROLLED TRIAL OF A HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS TYPE 16 VACCINE Earlier... * Has Misdiagnosis of Appendicitis Decreased over Time?  Article  Questions * Impact of a helmet law on two wheel motor vehicle crash mortality  Excerpt and Questions * The Effect of Raloxifene on Risk of Breast Cancer in Postmenopausal Women  Abstract and Questions * Lidkoping Injury Prevention Program (Raw data, SAS printouts and questions) Material for Homework [2003] homework 2003 (.pdf) [course 626, Fall 2003] Poisson Distribution; Inference re Rates { * = most relevant for course 681} * Armitage, Berry and Matthews     Ch3.7 The Poisson Distribution    Ch5.2 Inferences from Counts * Walker (Observation and Inference)     Ch8: Estimation Analysis of Open Cohort Studies  * Notes by JH (.pdf) Poisson Process (Excel Macro) { 'unprotect' Excel sheets if you wish to alter the layout .. under Tools menu -> Protection} On the error of counting with a haemocytometer: by STUDENT Biometrika 5(3) 1907 pp351-360 (from Feller's textbook) Observations fitting the PoissonDistribution Horse kicks, anthrax, and the Poisson model for deaths [article by Gerry Hill] Deaths from Horsekicks--from von Bortkiewicz (1898)     Data_and_Programs(.txt) Randomness at the root of things 2: Poisson sequences [article from Physics Education] The rate of audience fidget (Francis Galton) Exact confidence limits on a Poisson parameter: Notes by FDKLiddell (.gif) * Exact confidence limits on a Poisson parameter: Excel worksheet { 'unprotect' Excel sheets if you wish to alter layout .. under Tools menu -> Protection} Simplified exact analysis of case-referent studies: matched pairs: dichotomousexposure FDK Liddell J Epi and Comm. Health 37 82-84, 1983 (.gif files)   |   page 82   |   page 83  |   page 84 Simple exact analysis of the standardized mortality ratio FDK Liddell J Epi and Comm. Health 37 85-88, 1984 (.gif files)   |   page 85   |   page 86  |   page 87   |   page87 Effect of Epilepsy or Diabetes Mellitus on Risk of Automobile Accidents   |   Table 4   |   Calculationsfor Table 4   |   Table 5   |  Table 6   |  | Mantel-Haenszel and Regression analysis Cancers in Alberta study of SourGas   |  | regression analysis (1 x 1 table) Double Trouble in Moose Jaw Births after 1965 New York City Blackout Postponement of Death Until Symbolically Meaningful Occasions Full Moon and Crime DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS (see also accidentdata below) Is Scouting Safe? (.pdf) Women are Safer Pilots: Study (.pdf)   |  | analyses Impact sanitaire de la vague de chaleur en France survenue en août 2003 Rapport d'étape 29 août 2003 1. Contexte et chronologie de la mise en place de diverses études 2. Bref rappel des connaissances sur les effets sanitaires de la chaleur (88K) 3. Caractéristiques de la vague de chaleur d'août 2003 (676K) 4. Evolution de l'épidémie et première évaluation de son ampleur (78K) 5. Présentation des différentes enquêtes et des principaux résultats obtenus (389K) 6. Bilan de l'impact de la vague de chaleur dans les autres pays Conclusion / Références bibliographiques / Annexes (100K) Number of in-hospital deaths at Edouard Herriot Hospital , and Daily Maximal Temperatures during summers of 2002 and 2003, Lyon, France. Vanhems P et al. New Eng J Med Nov 20, 2003, pp 2077-2078. article and data: heatwave_lyon.txt   heatwave_lyon.csv   heatwave.sas   heatwave_lyon.do The Effect of Raloxifene on Risk of Breast Cancer in PostmenopausalWomen (.pdf) A Meta-analysis of Coffee Drinking, Cigarette Smoking, and the Risk of Parkinson's Disease Are there excess Sharons in genitourinary clinics? (.pdf) Christmas Editions of the British Medical Journal 2003 http://bmj.com/content/vol327/issue7429/ 2002 http://bmj.com/content/vol325/issue7378/ 2001 http://bmj.com/content/vol323/issue7327/ see especially 'Effects of remote, retroactive intercessory prayer on outcomesin patients with bloodstream infection: randomised controlled trial' 2000 http://bmj.com/content/vol321/issue7276/ 1999 http://bmj.com/content/vol319/issue7225/ 1998 http://bmj.com/content/vol317/issue7174/ 1997 http://bmj.com/content/vol315/issue7123/ 1996 http://bmj.com/content/vol313/issue7072/ 1995 http://bmj.com/content/vol311/issue7021/ Homework 2001 and earlier 2001 and earlier (.pdf) Regression for Risks(proportions) and Rates Models of Disease Association (section 2.4 of Breslow and Day Volume I) p53     p54-5    p56-7     p58-9    p60-1     p62-3    p64-5     p66-7    p68-9 Notes (.pdf) Numbers of male/female births, Canada and Provinces 1931-90-- Excerpt from CMAJ article (.pdf) --sas program Numbers of male/female births, USA and Regions 1971-90-- sas program A POPULATION-BASED STUDY OF MEASLES, MUMPS, AND RUBELLA VACCINATION AND AUTISM (see original article and exercise (based on diagram) on med2 webpage) counts / person times measured from diagram, together with SAS program Elementary Methods of Cohort Analysis: Breslow NE. Int. J of Epi 13(1) 112-115, 1984. EXTRA-POISSON VARIATION : simple example (SASprogram) NB: If sas programs won't open, right click on link, saveto local drive, then open from sas editor. LIFE CYCLE EVENTS IN 15th CENTURY FLORENCE: RECORDS OF THE MONTE DELLE DOTI. Alan Morrison, Julius Kirshner and Anthony Molho, AJE(1977) 106(6):487-492 Article (.pdf) Changes in Fatal and Non-fatal Crash Rates on a Toll Highway 1   2   3   4   5   6    dataand sas program Changes in Fatal and Non-fatal Crash Rates on a Toll Highway 1   2   3   4   5   6    dataand sas program FORTIFICATION of Foods with FOLIC ACID: Impact on Neural Tube Defects     [USA]        JAMA Article    Correspondence   dataset (Excel)        monthly raw data inside SAS program  quarterly raw data inside SAS program    [Canada]       Ontario 1986-1999 -- CMAJ   NovaScotia 1991-2000 -- CMAJ         Commentary--CMAJ     Exercise on above material     since then ...     [UK] -- (2001) Nature Magazine, News item     Fortified flour fracas:     Compulsory folic acid supplementation may hold risks     [US] --(2005) New York Times     Adding Folic Acid to Grain Reduces Birth Defects, Study Finds     article in Pediatrics     Decline in (US) Prevalence of Spina Bifida and Anencephaly: 1995-2002.     (2007) Presentation on this topic in Bios601 Modelling risk factors for injuries from dog bites in Greece: a case-only design and analysis Effects of screening on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in New South Wales implied by influences of period of diagnosis and birth cohort Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study A matter of life and death: population mortality and football results Birth order and mortality:a life-long follow-up of 14,200 boys and girls born in early 20th century Sweden Links between conditional logistic regression for matched sets and how Cox estimates hazard ratios in survival analysis.. J Hanley: Survival analysis; risk sets; case control studies: a unified view of some epidemiologic data-analyses (draft) article I     (draft) article II 3 additional items (from report on Woburn study) for article II: Fig 1   Table1    Table2 Analysis of Contaminated Well Water and Health Effects in Woburn, Mass [Lagakos, Wessen, Zelen; JASA '86] PDF High Quality- Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[2.8 MB] PDF Economy - Smallerfile size with fax-quality resolution. [772K] Rejoinder PDF HighQuality - Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[965K] PDF Economy- Smaller file size with fax-quality resolution. [290K] [C L A S S I C ] Cox DR. Regression models and Lifetables, JRSS 1972. PDF High Quality- Larger file size with high-quality resolution.[3.5 MB] PDF Economy - Smaller file size with fax-quality resolution. [985 K] Material on Competing Risks Analysis Prognosis of Conservatively Treated Prostate Cancer Material for JAMA 1998 article Figure 1 Cause-Specific Survival Curve vs. 3-compartment curve Input Rates Full JAMA 1998 article ... JAMA 2005 article by Albertsen et al. dataset for JAMA 2005 article Deprivation, disease, and death in Scotland:graphical display of survival of a cohort Deprivation, disease, and death in Scotland: graphical display of survival of a cohort Projections concerning Hepatitis C Inputs sample output Material from previous years "Direct" and "Indirect" Standardization:2 sides of same coin?(.pdf) Other Resources In honour of Nathan Mantel's 80th Birthday [from Statistics in Medicine]   Introduction [T Colton and J Wittes]   Mantel Unhyphenated [J Wittes]   Contributions to Epidemiology [M Gail]   Contributions to Laboratory Research [S Greenhouse] Premature Death in Jazz Musicians: Fact or Fiction?   letter to American J Public Health Hockey-epidemiology?   Pour battre Roy, mieux vaut lancer bas... (Mostly Real) Examples of Simpson's Paradox Boivin (Cancer 1992) Hanley and Thériault (Epidemiology 2000) from Carl J. Schwarz from Gerald Bracey from Chance News from C. H. Morrell from the Exploring Data website from E. A. Sungur from J. R. Vokey An example in a New Zealand Survey of Jury Composition Confounding and Simpson's paradox Datasets Accident rates - U.S. Charter vs. Regularly Scheduled airlines data+sas+explanation     data, with header, for R Time Change -- accident data -- documentation-- sas addicts' data -- documentation-- sas asthma data -- documentation --sas avalanche data -- documentation-- sas berkeley data -- documentation-- sas bladder cancer data -- documentationand sas breast cancer data -- documentation-- sas cabg data -- documentation -- sas cadmium data -- documentation-- sas Susceptibility to the Common Cold data (see documentation) - documentation-- sas code & raw data   .csv file cororary data (British Doctors) -- documentation-- sas Month of birth and risk of Crohn's disease BMJarticle -- sas program, incl data   Crying... data -- documentation (Gordon/Foss)-- sas -- Cox's paper (Bka1966) (British) doctors lung cancer data -- documentation-- sas Down's syndrome data_documentation_sas_program |  analyses esophagus data -- documentation-- sas Fox and Collier data   documentation  sas Framingham data...from Kahn and Sempos    documentation   sas permanentfile (.sd2) herpes data   documentation   sas HIV data (NEJM)   data sas program (incl raw data)num. and denom. in same obsn.   sas program: each obsn. has outcome= 0 or 1, and associatedfrequency link to NEJM article (under logistic regression) hurricane/cyclone data USA_Today_1995_data_plus_Sas/Stata statements (.txt)  | USA_Today_glim |  USA_Today_glim_elem_analyses    |  Yearly_Storms_Dataset (.xls)   |  Yearly_Storms_Dataset_SAS_documentation (.txt)   BBC_News_2005  | Science_article_2005  | Montreal_Gazette_2005 iceland breast cancer data   documentation  sas infertility data   documentation  sas Leisure World data -- documentation-- sas Leisure World data (incl derived variables) -- documentation-- sas Lidkoping Injury Prevention Program: * Full text (each page [gif file] approx 280K) 1   2   3   4   * Critique (each page [gif file] approx 280K)   1   2 * Commentary on Critique (2 gif files, approx 380K in total)   1    2  sas pgm (incl raw data data)   abbreviateddocumentation and exercise sas permanent dataset (sas 6) liver data -- documentation --sas ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION,PREGNANCY,AND LOW BIRTHWEIGHT . article (Data in Table I) .. . message from interested party . See also: Wacholder S. .... Binomial regression in GLIM: estimating risk ratios and risk differences .... American Journal of Epidemiology. 123(1):174-84, 1986. montana data -- documentation-- sas standard (U.S.) respiratory cancer mortality data -- documentation -- sas mystery data -- documentation-- sas nickel data -- documentation --sas O-ring data (Challenger Space Shuttle O-Ring Data) -- documentation -- sas oxford data -- documentation --sas pbc data -- documentation -- sas Québec monthly births/deaths data -- documentation-- sas Québec mortality data (female) -- documentation-- sas Québec mortality data (male) -- documentation-- sas male, female data, in same file sassd2 file Earthquakes magnitude 7.0 or greater 1900 - 1998 -- documentation-- sas strata data -- documentation --sas stroke data -- documentation --sas Thériault data (inside sas pgm) UV light data -- documentation-- sas vasectomy data -- documentation-- sas vets data -- documentation -- sas